A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They composes two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has has something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
